Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 7% on 6 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 242 daily closes on record from 6 May 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 7.2% on 29 Jun 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 28 Dec 2025. $68.03K traded over the market's life.
50 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:33 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 242 points, 6 May 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 May 2025 | 7.0% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| marco98 | Yes | 1.08K |
| Chickenman2047 | Yes | 333.33 |
| lissartter | Yes | 318.37 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one inmate is officially held at Alcatraz Federal Penitentiary on Alcatraz Island by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The inmate must be detained by the U.S. federal government as part of a formal correctional or detention program. Temporary holds of less than 24 hours or symbolic events will not count. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-reopen-alcatraz-in-2025
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Krokodil.1 | Yes | 297 |
| jontra | Yes | 285.78 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 253.99 |
| Pandaguin777 | Yes | 250 |
| Bold Scout BD7E | Yes | 225.97 |
| FrankyFatdog | Yes | 198.95 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | Yes | 173 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
