Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 24.5% on 9 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 143 daily closes on record from 9 Feb 2025 to 1 Jul 2025, the highest close was 25% on 10 Feb 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 Jul 2025. Its largest one-day move was 10 points up, to 12.6% on 9 May 2025. $160.42K traded over the market's life.
23 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 2, 8:24 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 143 points, 9 Feb 2025 – 1 Jul 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Feb 2025 | 24.5% |
| 1 Jul 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 484 |
| timberwolf1021 | Yes | 478.69 |
| viper55501 | Yes | 191.23 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that explicitly eliminates the carried interest tax provision by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Eliminating carried interest is defined as preventing investment fund managers from classifying carried interest as long-term capital gains rather than ordinary income. Legislation or executive actions that modify but do not fully eliminate the carried interest provision—such as increasing the holding period or altering tax rates without removing the provision entirely—will not qualify. Any law or executive action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's timeframe will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-remove-carried-interest-loophole-before-july
| duderr | Yes | 135.45 |
| chda | Yes | 83.33 |
| Crimson Falcon C79A | Yes | 68 |
| JimmyR | Yes | 50 |
| TheGamingDisease | Yes | 34 |
| Thalwen | Yes | 9.17 |
| Grythos | Yes | 9.09 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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