Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 0.5% on 25 Sep 2025. $240.94K traded over the market's life.
22 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 8, 11:51 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 7 points · 25 Sep 2025 – 1 Oct 2025 · axis zoomed to 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Sep 2025 | 0.5% |
| 1 Oct 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| zKL | Yes | 2.61K |
| marketguy1 | Yes | 1.72K |
| Albun1 | Yes | 1.39K |
| puiemonta | Yes | 900 |
| aqua54 | Yes | 883.22 |
| Tangbohuhu | Yes | 683.33 |
| LuckyMaker | Yes | 285.71 |
| dcbfdee | Yes | 201.95 |
| xvfr | Yes | 200 |
| LostProphet | Yes | 166.67 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-pardon-sbf-by-september-30
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