Analytics
Trading ended on 31 Dec 2025 with Yes at 24.5%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
The high was 32.5% on 9 Aug 2026 and the low 8.5% on 1 Aug 2026. A week ago Yes was at 12.5%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 32.5% on 9 Aug 2026.
$58.75 has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is AJSV with 17 shares; the largest No position is vbm with 10.
Polymarket record as of Aug 13, 6:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 13 points · 1 Aug 2026 – 13 Aug 2026 · axis zoomed to 0%–40%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Aug 2026 | 8.5% |
| 13 Aug 2026 | 25.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| AJSV | Yes | 17.17 |
| vbm | No | 10 |
| oniryu-1738331134583oni | No | 5.32 |
| uchiha.itachi | Yes | 5 |
| WatchTheTape | No | 5 |
| Wordy-Doctrine | Yes | 4.74 |
| bjprolo | No | 2.14 |
| Finic | No | 1.89 |
| SBFDRT | No | 1.79 |
| Danatra | No | 1.06 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump to issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether a person is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-pardon-sbf-by-december-31
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