Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.9%. Yes opened at 23% on 16 Jan 2025. Before it settled, across the 105 daily closes on record from 16 Jan 2025 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 23% on 16 Jan 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 29 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 5.5% on 17 Jan 2025. $568.86K traded over the market's life.
32 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 30, 7:51 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 105 points, 16 Jan 2025 – 30 Apr 2025, chart shows 0%–30%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 16 Jan 2025 | 23.0% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| dodois | Yes | 9.76K |
| Valid-Caption | Yes | 6.55K |
| rivox | Yes | 1K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If it becomes impossible for Trump issue a federal pardon, commutation, or reprieve within this market's timeframe, it may immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for whether Elon Musk is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/trump-pardons
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Yes |
| 270.8 |
| Silver Raven B168 | Yes | 120 |
| soarinpazed | Yes | 74.29 |
| Rapadura-BR | Yes | 25.64 |
| AIXBT | Yes | 16 |
| Twizzler | Yes | 11.11 |
| HEURIWESWFE | No | 7.62 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
