Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 4, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$22.8M

Resolved

Settled

Mar 4, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 4 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 44% on 9 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 209 daily closes on record from 9 Aug 2025 to 4 Mar 2026, the highest close was 44% on 9 Aug 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 38 points down, to 6.5% on 10 Aug 2025. $22.85M traded over the market's life.

539 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 7:59 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 209 points, 9 Aug 2025 – 4 Mar 2026

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	17.69M
ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile	Yes	1.87M
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Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.