Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Mar 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.3%. Yes opened at 2.3% on 6 Aug 2025. Before it settled, across the 211 daily closes on record from 6 Aug 2025 to 4 Mar 2026, the highest close was 2.8% on 4 Sep 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 3 Dec 2025. $24.72M traded over the market's life.
468 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Mar 5, 7:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 211 points, 6 Aug 2025 – 4 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Aug 2025 | 2.3% |
| 4 Mar 2026 | 0.7% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 17.69M |
| ClaudeAI | Yes | 2.43M |
| ImJustKenVerifiedVerified Polymarket profile |
This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-nominate-as-fed-chair
| Yes |
| 1.14M |
| A1d29 | Yes | 1.06M |
| 77FcD | Yes | 1M |
| Blind Chicken | Yes | 650.98K |
| Lunar Maven CBF1 | Yes | 500K |
| 7G-MAN | Yes | 340.42K |
| gopfan2 | Yes | 200K |
| Gnarls | Yes | 190.96K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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