Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 44.5% on 5 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 13 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 1 May 2026 (14 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 44.5% on 5 Apr 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points down, to 2.4% on 25 Apr 2026. $3.03K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 4:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 13 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 44.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Odd-Orchid | Yes | 85.9 |
| Itchy-Chives | Yes | 70.05 |
| J.p55 | Yes | 67.16 |
| Lavincey | Yes | 52.24 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed name between April 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". Plural and possessive forms of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market regardless of context; however, other forms will NOT count. If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once). A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible. Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution. AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution. Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/who-will-trump-name-in-april
Start here: the 25 October runoff, the polls, the Polymarket odds and the results, in one guide.
Why a candidate's poll share and market price measure different things, and how to read them side by side.
When the count begins on 25 October, and where the electoral court publishes the official results.
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| jomercury | Yes | 12.74 |
| username90 | Yes | 7.85 |
| Self-Assured-Stepsister | Yes | 5.59 |
| Grandiose-Layer | Yes | 5 |
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
