Analytics
Resolved No on 16 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 5.5% on 15 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 15 Jan 2026 to 16 Jan 2026, the highest close was 5.5% on 15 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 16 Jan 2026. $14.96K traded over the market's life.
21 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 17, 4:21 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 15 Jan 2026 – 16 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Jan 2026 | 5.5% |
| 16 Jan 2026 | 1.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Madhava | Yes | 4.56K |
| donglai66 | Yes | 1.97K |
| 0xRocket666 | Yes | 150 |
| Animated-Possession | Yes | 116.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement during the day on which they next meet in person in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Maria Machado personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling Machado weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Machado isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to Machado's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “Machado isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if Machado is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that she is the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-disparage-machado-by-friday
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| Slight-Ambiguity | Yes | 100 |
| Mowgli45 | Yes | 71.43 |
| 9839 | Yes | 40 |
| Barclay888 | Yes | 33.33 |
| Academic-Memorial | Yes | 32.5 |
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