Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.4%. Yes opened at 48.5% on 25 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 18 daily closes on record from 25 Mar 2026 to 1 May 2026 (20 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 25 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.6% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 45 points down, to 4% on 26 Mar 2026. $614.04K traded over the market's life.
200 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 7:36 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 18 points, 25 Mar 2026 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Mar 2026 | 48.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.6% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Blank-Review | Yes | 59.47K |
| Neon Sphinx 6032 | Yes | 15.8K |
| Sajadpalang | Yes | 7K |
| jajupe | Yes | 5K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump or an official representative of his administration (such as the White House Press Secretary, National Security Advisor, or Secretary of Defense) issues a formal public statement declaring that the United States is at war with Iran by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The statement must clearly and explicitly use language equivalent to a declaration of war—for example, stating that "the United States is now at war with Iran" or "we are declaring war on Iran." General statements about military action, retaliation, force, or operations will not qualify unless they include an unambiguous declaration of war. Executive orders or official memoranda may qualify only if they contain clear language declaring war. The primary resolution source will be official government communications, including White House press releases, presidential speeches, or public statements by senior administration officials; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-declare-war-on-iran-by
| Jam-Packed-Liability | Yes | 4.34K |
| Practical-Misnomer | Yes | 4.05K |
| 0x8712 | Yes | 4K |
| Wagmi420 | Yes | 2.82K |
| Charming-Knight | Yes | 2.51K |
| Intent-Eleventh | Yes | 2.12K |
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