Analytics
Resolved No on 30 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 46.5%. Yes opened at 83% on 29 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 29 Apr 2025 to 30 Apr 2025, the highest close was 83% on 29 Apr 2025 and the lowest 53.5% on 30 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 29 points down, to 53.5% on 30 Apr 2025. $8.49K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 1, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 29 Apr 2025 – 30 Apr 2025, chart shows 40%–90%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Apr 2025 | 83.0% |
| 30 Apr 2025 | 53.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| hamburger999 | Yes | 613.41 |
| TherealGibba | Yes | 48.02 |
| zorpa | Yes | 11.36 |
| Bundt-cake | No | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly congratulates the winner of the 2025 Canadian federal election by Tuesday, April 29, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A congratulatory message must clearly reference the winner, (either the party or presumptive Prime Minister) and express congratulations. Any congratulatory message to the presumed winner of the Canadian election will qualify regardless of if/when the results of the election are finalized. Only announcements made directly by Donald Trump himself, official statements from the White House explicitly on behalf of Trump, or posts from Trump's official social media accounts will qualify. Statements from the State Department, or from administration officials will not qualify. The resolution source will be official announcements from Trump, however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-congratulate-canada-election-winner-by-tuesday
| theamityaff | No | 0.01 |
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