Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 13.5% on 6 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 26 daily closes on record from 6 Apr 2025 to 1 May 2025, the highest close was 13.5% on 6 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 1 May 2025. $259.48K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 2, 4:20 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 26 points, 6 Apr 2025 – 1 May 2025, chart shows 0%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Apr 2025 | 13.5% |
| 1 May 2025 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| wowzers99 | Yes | 7.83K |
| rndmwlkr | Yes | 100 |
| NFDee | Yes | 100 |
| Soosheimer | Yes | 85.71 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly claims that he crashed the stock market on purpose by April 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For this market, a qualifying claim must be an original public statement from Trump, either written or verbal, where he explicitly states that he intentionally caused a stock market crash. Reposts, retweets, or shares of other people’s statements will not count—only statements directly authored or spoken by Trump himself will qualify. The resolution source will be public statements made by Donald Trump. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-trump-claim-he-crashed-the-market-on-purpose
| sdegtg | Yes | 55.41 |
| luckybucket | Yes | 30 |
| krama | Yes | 14.5 |
| Solar Maven 3407 | Yes | 12.82 |
| Bobcake | Yes | 11.11 |
| Leon42 | Yes | 10 |
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