Analytics
Resolved No on 3 Apr 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 83.8%. Yes opened at 72% on 28 Mar 2025. Before it settled, across the 7 daily closes on record from 28 Mar 2025 to 3 Apr 2025, the highest close was 81.5% on 31 Mar 2025 and the lowest 16.3% on 3 Apr 2025. Its largest one-day move was 54 points down, to 16.3% on 3 Apr 2025. $5.58K traded over the market's life.
14 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 4, 10:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 7 points, 28 Mar 2025 – 3 Apr 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Mar 2025 | 72.0% |
| 3 Apr 2025 | 16.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Ivory Tide 9104 | Yes | 310 |
| Crimson Orbit 3A54 | Yes | 165 |
| Silver Scout 6FFD | Yes | 105 |
| Cosmic Atlas F0C5 | Yes | 95 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration officially announces that the U.S. government will impose any new or increased tariffs on the listed country on April 2, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any tariff which is officially announced within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of if/when the tariff goes into effect. Only tariffs specifically targeting a named country will qualify. For example, a tariff on the European Union would not count for France. Likewise, a global tariff (tariffs on all imports into the US) will not count toward this market's resolution. Announcements that tariffs which were previously delayed will go into effect, including the March 4 tariffs on Canada and Mexico, will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. An announcement of a “secondary tariff” on countries purchasing from a listed country will qualify solely for the origin country unless the purchasing country is explicitly named. For example, a tariff on any country purchasing oil from Venezuela will qualify the market for Venezuela to resolve “Yes” but will not count as a tariff on the countries purchasing Venezuelan oil unless they are explicitly named. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration however a consensus for credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-trump-tariff-on-april-2
| Golden Tide 0088 | Yes | 70 |
| Cobalt Scout F3F7 | Yes | 65 |
| Lunar Beacon 4E21 | Yes | 45 |
| Ivory Signal E78E | Yes | 30 |
| Juanny | Yes | 28.7 |
| Ivory Raven FD44 | Yes | 15 |
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