Analytics
Resolved Yes on 4 Jul 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.1%. Yes opened at 99.2% on 3 Jul 2025. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 3 Jul 2025 to 4 Jul 2025, the price held at 99.2%. $30.54K traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 6, 12:25 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 3 Jul 2025 – 4 Jul 2025, chart shows 90%–100%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 3 Jul 2025 | 99.2% |
| 4 Jul 2025 | 99.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| babypanda | No | 3.08K |
| 400p | Yes | 0.02 |
| arka.parka.leto | Yes | 0.02 |
| ineedmoreiq | Yes | 0.02 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between July 1, and July 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/). Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-countries-will-the-us-agree-to-tariff-agreements-with-before-august
| AllByMyseIf | No | 0.02 |
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