Analytics
Resolved No on 4 Sep 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 8% on 28 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 8 daily closes on record from 28 Aug 2026 to 4 Sep 2026, the highest close was 8% on 28 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 4 Sep 2026. $4.16K traded over the market's life.
20 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 5, 11:04 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 8 points, 28 Aug 2026 – 4 Sep 2026, chart shows 0%–10%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2026 | 8.0% |
| 4 Sep 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Mrage | Yes | 1.32K |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 376.64 |
| Regular-Triangle | Yes | 259.85 |
| Attached-Prairie | Yes | 99.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times. The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution. If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-tropical-storm-dolly-strengthen-to-a-hurricane
| Menacing-Revitalization-Anorak | Yes | 49.99 |
| menthe2 | Yes | 49.98 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 20.6 |
| crop? | Yes | 20 |
| yuyang | Yes | 12.69 |
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