Analytics
Resolved No on 7 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 76.5%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 6 Oct 2026. Before it settled, across the 2 daily closes on record from 6 Oct 2026 to 7 Oct 2026, the highest close was 37.5% on 6 Oct 2026 and the lowest 23.5% on 7 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 14 points down, to 23.5% on 7 Oct 2026. $94.17 traded over the market's life.
4 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 8, 6:10 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 2 points, 6 Oct 2026 – 7 Oct 2026, chart shows 20%–45%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 6 Oct 2026 | 37.5% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 23.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 107.7 |
| mustbethewater | Yes | 12.37 |
| Scotsban | Yes | 10.16 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the number of qualifying resets announced or initiated between 12:00 a.m. ET on October 5, 2026, and 11:59 p.m. ET on October 11, 2026. Resets will be counted by the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI announces or initiates them, and at most one reset will be counted per calendar date. Announcements, confirmations, or phased rollouts of a reset already counted will not add to the total. A qualifying reset is a discretionary, non-scheduled action by OpenAI that, ahead of the normal reset schedule, either zeroes or refills the weekly or generally applicable usage allowance for paid Codex or ChatGPT Work subscription users, or grants those users a reset that OpenAI characterizes as a banked or redeemable rate-limit reset, regardless of whether or when individual users redeem it. A reset will still qualify if certain models with separate usage limits, certain plans, or some users are not covered due to technical exceptions, phased rollout, or plan differences. Normal scheduled resets, resets granted only to individually selected users or accounts, temporary limit increases, additional usage or credits that do not refill existing allowances, and changes to pricing, plans, or usage caps will not qualify. Resets of OpenAI API rate limits or organizational usage tiers will also not qualify. Only qualifying resets announced or initiated within the specified week will be counted. An official announcement stating that OpenAI has reset, is resetting, or will reset the limits on the same date as the announcement will count if published within the specified week, regardless of when the technical reset begins or is completed. Qualifying announcements include X posts by official OpenAI accounts or OpenAI employees authorized to announce Codex usage changes, for example: https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2042296046009626989 and https://x.com/sama/status/2041658719839383945. This market will resolve to "No" as soon as the specified number of resets becomes impossible, for example because more resets than the specified number have already occurred. The primary resolution source for this market will be official communications from OpenAI, including X posts published by @OpenAI, @OpenAIDevs, @sama, @thsottiaux, or any other OpenAI-operated account, as well as official OpenAI blog posts, changelogs, and in-product notices. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-codex-resets-week-of-october-5
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