Will there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide by March 22?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 23, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Resolved

Settled

Mar 23, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 23 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 22.5% on 14 Mar 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 14 Mar 2026 to 23 Mar 2026, the highest close was 22.5% on 14 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 21 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 0.6% on 15 Mar 2026.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 23, 9:23 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 14 Mar 2026 – 23 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–30%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
14 Mar 2026	22.5%
23 Mar 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	8.02K
TENETENET	Yes	999.97
cry.eth2	Yes	755.92
wokerjoesleeper	Yes	323.19

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between March 16, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and March 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.