Analytics
Resolved No on 13 Apr 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 87%. Yes opened at 15.5% on 5 Apr 2026. Before it settled, across the 3 daily closes on record from 5 Apr 2026 to 12 Apr 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 15.5% on 5 Apr 2026 and the lowest 13% on 12 Apr 2026. $9.25K traded over the market's life.
13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Apr 14, 8:40 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 3 points, 5 Apr 2026 – 12 Apr 2026, chart shows 5%–20%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Apr 2026 | 15.5% |
| 12 Apr 2026 | 13.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 2.25K |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 903 |
| pd.unique | Yes | 56.3 |
| megadarkparticle | Yes | 50 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between April 6, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and April 12, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-april-6-april-12
| nrynry | Yes | 47.84 |
| Silver Ledger 0341 | Yes | 29.73 |
| A.V.A | Yes | 22 |
| animal.bean | Yes | 21.68 |
| Neat-Robot | Yes | 19.97 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
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