Analytics
“Will there be exactly 1 major space weather event this week?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “How many major Space Weather events this week? (April 26 - May 2)”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is May 2, 2026. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 9 hourly price points from Apr 25, 2026 to May 3, 2026 (Yes between 2.5% and 45.0%); 12 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.0% of the loaded shares; 44 recent public fills from 27 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 26, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-there-be-exactly-1-major-space-weather-event-this-week
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 422.68 |
| hjhjhjhjhjhjhj | Yes | 126.57 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 100 |
| RegularGMan | Yes | 75.27 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 50 |
| Devoted-Route | Yes | 25.06 |
| 5a82666suyuchen | Yes | 5.16 |
| 42ds | Yes | 5.13 |
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 5 |
| Carlopol | Yes | 5 |