
Resolved Yes on 3 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 96.3%. Yes opened at 46% on 25 Apr 2026. Before it settled, the high was 96.3% on 3 May 2026 and the low 38% on 26 Apr 2026. Its largest one-day move was 31 points up, to 95.5% on 2 May 2026. $10.53K traded over the market's life.
19 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 4, 2:50 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 9 points · 25 Apr 2026 – 3 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 25 Apr 2026 | 46.0% |
| 3 May 2026 | 96.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| 42ds | No | 7.19K |
| hjhjhjhjhjhjhj | No | 841.11 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 422.68 |
| TENETENET | No | 100 |
| .Menthe | No | 50 |
| triklozoid | No | 50 |
| degenpress | No | 26.23 |
| commonraccoon | No | 13.33 |
| rocketcrypto | No | 5 |
| Golden Horizon 54D0 | No | 5 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
This market will resolve according to the number of geomagnetic storms, solar radiation storms, or radio blackouts with a severity level of 3 or greater which occur between April 26, 2026, 12:00AM ET and May 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A G3 event is a geomagnetic storm with a classification indicating "Strong". An S3 event is a solar radiation storm with a "Strong" classification. An R3 event is a radio blackout event with a classification indicating "Strong". More information on the space weather classification criteria can be found here: https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation This market may not resolve until the end of the relevant timeframe. This market will resolve according to the final number of qualifying events at the end of this market's timeframe to allow for revisions to the data. Only the initial report of an ongoing event with multiple reports will qualify, unless the rating of the event is upgraded to a qualifying level from a non-qualifying level within this market's timeframe. If the reported data falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on information from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center in the "ALERTS, WATCHES AND WARNINGS" table located under the heading titled "Current Space Weather Conditions" at https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnings#. If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-major-space-weather-events-this-week-april-26-may-2
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