Analytics
Resolved Yes on 25 Aug 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 32% on 15 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 11 daily closes on record from 15 Aug 2026 to 25 Aug 2026, the highest close was 99.5% on 25 Aug 2026 and the lowest 28.5% on 19 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 36 points up, to 64% on 21 Aug 2026. $5.87K traded over the market's life.
16 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Aug 25, 9:43 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 11 points, 15 Aug 2026 – 25 Aug 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 15 Aug 2026 | 32.0% |
| 25 Aug 2026 | 99.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 746.9 |
| jonnyquakes | No | 292.96 |
| GuyFromTinder | No | 143.74 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between August 17, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, and August 23, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 6.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until August 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude, or 48 hours if the prior paragraph applies. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-6pt5-or-above-earthquakes-august-17-august-23
| No |
| 85.82 |
| collectorr | No | 50 |
| monoclith | No | 20.01 |
| TENETENET | No | 10 |
| Frizzy-Corsage | No | 7.59 |
| Plaintive-Ping | No | 5 |
| triklozoid | No | 5 |
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