Analytics
Resolved No on 2 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 46% on 27 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 37 daily closes on record from 27 Aug 2026 to 2 Oct 2026, the highest close was 46% on 27 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 20.5% on 28 Aug 2026. $5.61K traded over the market's life.
26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 11:05 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 37 points, 27 Aug 2026 – 2 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 27 Aug 2026 | 46.0% |
| 2 Oct 2026 | 0.4% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.87K |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 166 |
| b41eAd279375742D6C2A1A2239Bdce56376411fD. | Yes | 105.86 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the number of calendar days during the specified month (ET) on which OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage'. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on a given day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. This market will remain open until all qualifying day’s status boxes are finalized. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published within this market’s timeframe. This market will resolve once all relevant days are finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified timeframe is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified timeframe, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/of-chatgpt-outage-days-in-september-2026
| Yes |
| 99.96 |
| crossFiter | Yes | 76.27 |
| Crimson Summit 6D33 | Yes | 72 |
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| PPMT | Yes | 30 |
| korda77 | Yes | 26.12 |
| Neon Atlas F332 | Yes | 25.27 |
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