Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.2%. Yes opened at 54% on 9 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 23 daily closes on record from 9 Sep 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 54% on 9 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.4% on 30 Sep 2026. Its largest one-day move was 46 points down, to 8.5% on 10 Sep 2026. $269.13 traded over the market's life.
5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 23 points, 9 Sep 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 9 Sep 2026 | 54.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.8% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| .Menthe | Yes | 50 |
| Noxious-Scholar | Yes | 12 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-uptspt-by-september-30
| Yes |
| 7 |
| triklozoid | Yes | 5 |
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