Will there be at least 2400 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Aug 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$18.6K

Resolved

Settled

Aug 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 7.5% on 2 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 30 daily closes on record from 2 Jul 2026 to 1 Aug 2026 (1 day in that span have no close), the highest close was 25.6% on 16 Jul 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 14.7% on 17 Jul 2026. $18.62K traded over the market's life.

26 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:08 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 30 points, 2 Jul 2026 – 1 Aug 2026, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
2 Jul 2026	7.5%
1 Aug 2026	0.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
bricc	Yes	1.11K
troim	Yes	799.99
Ahoetah	Yes	250

10 of 26 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.