Will there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Resolved

No, settled Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$11.8K

Resolved

Settled

Jan 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 14% on 12 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 14% on 12 Dec 2025 and the lowest 0.4% on 27 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 5.5 points down, to 8.5% on 13 Dec 2025. $11.77K traded over the market's life.

27 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:31 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 12 Dec 2025 – 1 Jan 2026, chart shows 0%–20%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Dec 2025	14.0%
1 Jan 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
MyLige	Yes	1.11K
Bright Horizon 81D6	Yes	328
GGBCHUO	Yes	217.78

10 of 27 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been 2,200 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025 according to the CDC case counter by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.