Will there be at least 2050 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 31, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$145.1K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 31, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 31 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 71.5%. Yes opened at 59% on 12 Dec 2025. Before it settled, across the 21 daily closes on record from 12 Dec 2025 to 31 Dec 2025, the highest close was 72.5% on 24 Dec 2025 and the lowest 27.5% on 22 Dec 2025. Its largest one-day move was 42 points up, to 72.5% on 24 Dec 2025. $145.07K traded over the market's life.

87 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:01 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 21 points, 12 Dec 2025 – 31 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
12 Dec 2025	59.0%
31 Dec 2025	71.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
FunGuy	No	5.15K
collectorr	No	3K
Shocked-Clavier	No	2.22K
AvishaiBass	No	1.71K

10 of 87 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been 2,200 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025 according to the CDC case counter by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.