Analytics
Resolved Yes on 3 Dec 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.9%. Yes opened at 37.5% on 5 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 90 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2025 to 3 Dec 2025, the highest close was 99.9% on 1 Dec 2025 and the lowest 20.5% on 6 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 33 points up, to 68.5% on 2 Oct 2025. $82.71K traded over the market's life.
35 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 12, 4:01 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 90 points, 5 Sep 2025 – 3 Dec 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 5 Sep 2025 | 37.5% |
| 3 Dec 2025 | 99.9% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| PhongLeXBT | No | 5.34K |
| doogiieee | No | 940.29 |
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | No | 790 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been 1,800 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025 according to the CDC case counter by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/measles-cases-in-us-before-2026
| No |
| 510.64 |
| zero.insider | No | 500 |
| S888 | No | 240 |
| Emerald Pioneer D14A | No | 222.1 |
| Bright Signal 14DE | No | 186 |
| Crimson Vector F03A | No | 153 |
| OMXoSfmqBZ | No | 150 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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