Will there be at least 1750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2025?

Resolved

Yes, settled Nov 19, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$234.5K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Nov 19, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 19 Nov 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.2%. Yes opened at 38.5% on 5 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 76 daily closes on record from 5 Sep 2025 to 19 Nov 2025, the highest close was 99.3% on 18 Nov 2025 and the lowest 27% on 6 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 20 points up, to 76.5% on 16 Oct 2025. $234.54K traded over the market's life.

34 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Jan 19, 3:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 76 points, 5 Sep 2025 – 19 Nov 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
5 Sep 2025	38.5%
19 Nov 2025	99.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
PhongLeXBT	No	7.29K
WhiteLivesMatter	No	2.5K
KimbalMusk	No	1K

10 of 34 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been 2,200 or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025 according to the CDC case counter by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.