Will there be at least 1600 measles cases in the U.S. by March 31, 2026?

Resolved

No, settled Apr 1, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$182.4K

Resolved

Settled

Apr 1, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 1 Apr 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.6%. Yes opened at 33.5% on 28 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 28 Feb 2026 to 1 Apr 2026, the highest close was 73% on 8 Mar 2026 and the lowest 0.1% on 31 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 1.1% on 28 Mar 2026. $182.37K traded over the market's life.

45 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Apr 2, 7:08 AM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 28 Feb 2026 – 1 Apr 2026

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
28 Feb 2026	33.5%
1 Apr 2026	0.4%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
persephone1111	Yes	4.06K
Giannis2026	Yes	2.06K
cw99000	Yes	1.34K

10 of 45 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026, according to the CDC case counter by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter 'Total Cases' in 2026 (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.