Analytics
Yes is at 3.4%, down 39 points from 42.5% when the market opened on 29 Jul 2026.
Across the 91 daily closes on record from 29 Jul 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 48.5% on 8 Aug 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 4 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 1.9%; a month before, 1.4%. Its largest one-day move was 20 points down, to 28% on 9 Aug 2026.
4-6 ranks second of the 3 outcomes in “How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?”. 1-3 leads at 96.2%; 7+ is at 0.1%.
$200 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $17.62K since listing. The order book holds $1.96K, with a 5.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 309 trades, $370.32 bought Yes and $6.31K bought No; the largest was a $1.95K buy of No at 90.0¢.
The largest Yes position is PMMMR with 2.9K shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 8.1K. Ten wallets hold 83.8% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Dec 2026, 32 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 11:43 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 91 points, 29 Jul 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jul 2026 | 42.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 3.4% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 8.13K |
| PMMMR | Yes | 2.94K |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 594.1 |
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0". A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php. This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-hurricanes-will-form-during-the-atlantic-hurricane-season-in-2026-20260728201848339
| Neon Atlas F332 |
| Yes |
| 508.94 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 475.97 |
| LornaPredicts | Yes | 334.03 |
| donthackme | Yes | 264.11 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 250 |
| vlospa | Yes | 244.99 |
| haouibao | Yes | 240 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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