Will there be 1850+ measles cases in the U.S. on December 31?

Resolved

Yes, settled Dec 10, 2025 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$10.2K

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Dec 10, 2025 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 10 Dec 2025.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 99.5%. Yes opened at 32.5% on 4 Sep 2025. Before it settled, across the 98 daily closes on record from 4 Sep 2025 to 10 Dec 2025, the highest close was 99.5% on 10 Dec 2025 and the lowest 12% on 6 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 30 points up, to 42% on 18 Sep 2025. $10.24K traded over the market's life.

13 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Dec 10, 11:01 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 98 points, 4 Sep 2025 – 10 Dec 2025

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
4 Sep 2025	32.5%
10 Dec 2025	99.5%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Bright Horizon 81D6	No	1.14K
Indigo Signal 2966	No	548.75
Crimson Vector F03A	No	323

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the number of confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2025, according to the CDC case counter on December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.