Analytics
Resolved No on 14 Jul 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 93.7%. Yes opened at 11.5% on 11 Jul 2026. Before it settled, across the 4 daily closes on record from 11 Jul 2026 to 14 Jul 2026, the highest close was 48% on 13 Jul 2026 and the lowest 6.3% on 14 Jul 2026. Its largest one-day move was 42 points down, to 6.3% on 14 Jul 2026. $1.32K traded over the market's life.
6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jul 15, 2:56 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 4 points, 11 Jul 2026 – 14 Jul 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2026 | 11.5% |
| 14 Jul 2026 | 6.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| .Menthe | Yes | 49.99 |
| RadioFreeZerg | Yes | 40.5 |
| Mojito9 | Yes | 10 |
| AntiVaxxer | Yes | 7.5 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the total number of home runs hit on bonus swings during the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby equals or exceeds the listed number. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Only home runs hit on bonus swings are counted. Home runs hit in a swing off or prior to a player’s final allotted swing (i.e. swing 1-19 in the first round and swing 1-14 in remaining rounds) do not count. If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is shortened, truncated, or ends early for any reason, the outcome shall be determined using available official data for completed rounds. If the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby is cancelled, postponed after July 27, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or the exact total cannot be determined within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the MLB; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/2026-mlb-home-run-derby-number-of-bonus-swing-hrs-20260709214434892
| rocketcrypto | Yes | 4.99 |
| ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yes | 0.01 |
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