Analytics
Yes is at 2.7%, down 3.8 points from 6.5% when the market opened on 24 Oct 2026.
Across the 5 daily closes on record from 24 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 8% on 27 Oct 2026 and the lowest 2.7% on 30 Oct 2026.
12 ranks third of the 9 outcomes in “How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide October 26 - November 1?”. more than 13 leads at 83.5%; 13 is at 9.8%.
$10 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $440.73 since listing. The order book holds $1.97K, with a 3.6% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 22 trades, $13.57 bought Yes and $188.42 bought No.
The largest Yes position is Haradwaith with 223 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 370.
Trading closes on 2 Nov 2026, 3 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 5 points, 24 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026, chart shows 0%–12%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 24 Oct 2026 | 6.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 2.7% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 370.46 |
| Haradwaith | Yes | 223 |
| EQIQ | Yes | 98.99 |
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 5.5 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between October 26, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program, with the minimum magnitude set to 5.5 and the date parameters set to the relevant dates for this market's timeframe (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until 48 hours after the market's closing time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that time, another credible resolution source will be used. This market may not resolve until the timeframe of this market has concluded. If a qualifying earthquake has been recorded on the final day, this market may remain open for 24 hours to allow for revisions to the recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data. If no earthquake data for this market's timeframe has been published on the resolution source by 48 hours after the market's closing time, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/how-many-5pt5-or-above-earthquakes-worldwide-october-26-november-1
| KiruaTrading |
| Yes |
| 30.62 |
| DowJones2 | Yes | 20 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 10 |
| BottleHeck | No | 10 |
| TemuOracle | No | 10 |
| 1x6891589732cf8beaaf424b117d5c5c20919f6bb9 | Yes | 8.51 |
| cigarettes | No | 8 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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