Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Sep 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 100%. Yes opened at 31.5% on 20 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 105 daily closes on record from 20 May 2025 to 1 Sep 2025, the highest close was 39% on 23 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 1 Sep 2025. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 17% on 24 May 2025. $236.35K traded over the market's life.
60 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Sep 1, 6:08 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 105 points, 20 May 2025 – 1 Sep 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 May 2025 | 31.5% |
| 1 Sep 2025 | 0.1% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bright Horizon 81D6 | Yes | 5.14K |
| 1d87b776-d24b-4d1c-ad70-1f2b2051ceea | Yes | 2.94K |
| MetaProphet | Yes | 1.53K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Vatican hosts an official meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine to negotiate a ceasefire or peace agreement by August 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The meeting must involve direct and in person participation of representatives from both Russia and Ukraine and be explicitly aimed at discussing a ceasefire or peace agreement in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict. Unofficial discussions, humanitarian negotiations, or meetings not physically hosted in the Vatican will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible media reporting confirming the meeting will suffice.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-vatican-host-russia-ukraine-peace-talks
| Grogor |
| Yes |
| 956.23 |
| Gambledalf | Yes | 643.13 |
| Newshound | Yes | 349 |
| Bridawg | Yes | 336.38 |
| Kaiumba | Yes | 305.61 |
| Hawkai | Yes | 272.97 |
| Well-Off-Podcast | Yes | 188.57 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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