Analytics
Resolved No on 31 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 54% on 10 May 2025. Before it settled, across the 22 daily closes on record from 10 May 2025 to 31 May 2025, the highest close was 54% on 10 May 2025 and the lowest 0.1% on 25 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 24 points down, to 30.5% on 11 May 2025. $64K traded over the market's life.
15 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jun 1, 4:24 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 22 points, 10 May 2025 – 31 May 2025
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 10 May 2025 | 54.0% |
| 31 May 2025 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 27.04K |
| ArbiTrader.Zim | Yes | 3.3K |
| MaxMeng | Yes | 1.35K |
| titan77 | Yes | 950 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve according to the general tariff rate on imports into the United States from the People's Republic of China on May 31, 2025, 12:00 PM ET. The general tariff rate refers to the base tariff rate paid on imports, including any general tariff the U.S. imposes on all imports (e.g. a 10% tariff on all U.S. imports and a 50% tariff on top of that on Chinese imports would equal a 60% tariff). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. Item specific exceptions or increases will not be considered (i.e. this market does not refer to the effective tariff rate). Only tariffs which are in effect will qualify. Tariffs which are paused, or which have been announced but not yet gone into effect will not be considered. This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/us-tariff-rate-on-china-on-may-31
| HugeSilver | Yes | 600 |
| Lalaf | Yes | 301.15 |
| Half-Rent | Yes | 166.67 |
| Jacobo222 | Yes | 166.67 |
| Biodegradable-Documentary | Yes | 119.97 |
| afvsimpson | Yes | 73.56 |
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