Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Jan 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.8%. Yes opened at 40.5% on 19 Feb 2025. Before it settled, across the 318 daily closes on record from 19 Feb 2025 to 1 Jan 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 26 Apr 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 15 points up, to 31.5% on 9 Aug 2025. $801.27K traded over the market's life.
249 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Jan 2, 8:32 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 318 points, 19 Feb 2025 – 1 Jan 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 19 Feb 2025 | 40.5% |
| 1 Jan 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| WhaleZone | Yes | 37.61K |
| mico. | Yes | 15.95K |
| ArchBishopSusan | Yes | 6.98K |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over the majority of the Crimean peninsula by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Donald Trump's March 25, 2019, recognition of Israel's sovereignty over the Golan Heights is an example of a qualifying action. Statement of intents, or announcements of planned recognition will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-recognize-russian-sovereignty-over-crimea-in-2025
New to prediction markets?
| Fred256 | Yes | 6.12K |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 2.32K |
| edgario | Yes | 2.04K |
| Whaleeeee | Yes | 1.98K |
| wisser | Yes | 1.38K |
| Get10 | Yes | 1.05K |
| Asotos | Yes | 799.99 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
