Will the US lose jobs in January?

Resolved

No, settled Feb 11, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$56.5K

Resolved

Settled

Feb 11, 2026 UTC

Topic roomUS Economy

Where it stands

Resolved No on 11 Feb 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 84.9%. Yes opened at 19.5% on 10 Jan 2026. Before it settled, across the 33 daily closes on record from 10 Jan 2026 to 11 Feb 2026, the highest close was 19.5% on 10 Jan 2026 and the lowest 1.2% on 25 Jan 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points up, to 16% on 13 Jan 2026. $56.52K traded over the market's life.

64 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Feb 12, 4:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 33 points, 10 Jan 2026 – 11 Feb 2026, chart shows 0%–25%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
10 Jan 2026	19.5%
11 Feb 2026	15.1%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	9.74K
cowcat	Yes	1.85K
SneezinTickets	Yes	1.2K
bearwin	Yes	1.14K

10 of 64 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for January 2026, scheduled to be released on February 11, 2026, 8:30 AM ET. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If no data for December is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm