Analytics
Yes is at 20%, up 4 points from 16% when the market opened on 20 Aug 2026.
Across the 65 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (8 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 59.5% on 30 Sep 2026 and the lowest 9.5% on 23 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 20.5%; a month before, 59.5%. Its largest one-day move was 43 points up, to 57% on 8 Oct 2026.
$40 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.35K since listing. The order book holds $502.85, with a 4.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 59 trades, $144.58 bought Yes and $910.58 bought No.
The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 274 shares; the largest No position is Hans323 with 252. Ten wallets hold 97.7% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jul 2027.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 2:37 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 65 points, 20 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | 16.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 20.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 274 |
| Hans323 | No | 252 |
| sasha585 | No | 128.8 |
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No". The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls. Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release. If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-us-break-its-record-for-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters-in-2026-1787153419673
| makanmakan |
| Yes |
| 50 |
| bubububblebutt | No | 40 |
| 2B9S | Yes | 21.03 |
| stack8 | Yes | 20 |
| 29EDa18df836aD93a8c285F97873bBE26118A8da. | Yes | 20 |
| pombos | Yes | 20 |
| Soulful-Remains-Chorus | Yes | 20 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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