Will the U.S. weekly flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 31 be less than 0.1?

weatherResolved

Yes, settled Aug 14, 2026 UTC

Yes

100.0%

0.0%

Final Yes 100¢Final No 0¢

Lifetime volume

$828

Resolved

Yes

Settled

Aug 14, 2026 UTC

Topic roomOutbreaks and pandemics

Where it stands

Resolved Yes on 14 Aug 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had Yes at 84.2%. Yes opened at 85% on 9 Aug 2026. Before it settled, across the 6 daily closes on record from 9 Aug 2026 to 14 Aug 2026, the highest close was 94.8% on 13 Aug 2026 and the lowest 84.2% on 14 Aug 2026. Its largest one-day move was 11 points down, to 84.2% on 14 Aug 2026. $827.85 traded over the market's life.

6 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Oct 7, 8:04 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 6 points, 9 Aug 2026 – 14 Aug 2026, chart shows 80%–100%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
9 Aug 2026	85.0%
14 Aug 2026	84.2%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
Indigo Signal 2966	No	65.25
menthe2	No	50
Mojito9	No	20.65
J25525	No	20

6 of 6 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve according to the weekly influenza-associated hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the United States, as reported by CDC FluSurv-NET for the specified week. The resolution source for this market will be CDC FluView / FluSurv-NET (see: https://www.cdc.gov/fluview/index.html). If the FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate for the specified week is not released by 11:59 PM ET on the tenth calendar day following the date of the prior FluView weekly report release, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. CDC FluView reports the weekly FluSurv-NET hospitalization rate per 100,000 population to one decimal point (e.g., 0.1). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Note: Only the CDC FluSurv-NET weekly hospitalization rate per 100,000 population for the specified week will qualify, regardless of the cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate, estimates, projections, state-level reports, or other influenza surveillance metrics published by the CDC or other sources.