Will the total number of TSA passengers for February 23 - March 1 be between 17,000,000 and 17,500,000?

Resolved

No, settled Mar 2, 2026 UTC

Yes

0.0%

100.0%

Final Yes 0¢Final No 100¢

Lifetime volume

$510

Resolved

Settled

Mar 2, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Resolved No on 2 Mar 2026.

The last daily price before settlement had No at 98%. Yes opened at 18% on 21 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 10 daily closes on record from 21 Feb 2026 to 2 Mar 2026, the highest close was 30.5% on 27 Feb 2026 and the lowest 1.9% on 2 Mar 2026. Its largest one-day move was 26 points down, to 4.1% on 28 Feb 2026. $509.95 traded over the market's life.

5 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.

Polymarket record as of Mar 3, 4:25 PM UTC

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 10 points, 21 Feb 2026 – 2 Mar 2026, chart shows 0%–40%

Yes price, first and latest
Observed	Yes price
21 Feb 2026	18.0%
2 Mar 2026	1.9%

Holders left after settlement

Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
bjprolo	Yes	100
xiaodouzi	Yes	100
daotangjiao	Yes	47.95
Amber Horizon 6EB5	Yes	10

5 of 5 listed holders. Polymarket publishes up to 500 per outcome; the Holders tab has them all.

Read the record behind the trader

Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.

Rules

How this market was settled

This market will resolve to the total number of TSA passengers reported between February 23, 2026 and March 1, 2026 (inclusive). The total number of TSA passengers will be calculated by summing all of the TSA daily checkpoint throughputs reported for this date range (e.g. if there were a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 2 million reported on December 1 and a daily TSA checkpoint throughput of 3 million reported on December 2, the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-2 would be 5 million). If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range. Any revisions published to data for dates December 8, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered. If data is not available for any of the dates from February 23, 2026 to March 1, 2026 by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.