Analytics
Trading ended on 14 Sep 2026 with Yes at 70.2%; Polymarket has not settled it yet.
Across the 66 daily closes on record from 20 Aug 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (7 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 95.3% on 19 Sep 2026 and the lowest 64.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 79.6%; a month before, 74.7%. Its largest one-day move was 18 points up, to 86% on 14 Sep 2026.
It is one of 9 markets under “Which parties will be in next Swedish Government?”.
$73.2K has traded since listing.
The largest Yes position is paddapadda with 2.8K shares; the largest No position is vinii with 4.3K. Ten wallets hold 69.6% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Polymarket record as of Oct 30, 12:31 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 66 points, 20 Aug 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 20 Aug 2026 | 87.5% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 70.2% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| vinii | No | 4.28K |
| paddapadda | Yes | 2.81K |
| Eire | Yes | 2.4K |
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed after the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may resolve once the composition of the first Swedish government following the 2026 parliamentary elections is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office. A party will only be considered part of the coalition if it provides at least one cabinet minister. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a cabinet post will not qualify. If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Government of Sweden and the Riksdag.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/which-parties-will-be-in-next-swedish-government
| Tattered-Ephyra |
| No |
| 2.37K |
| OllonPiercing | No | 1.96K |
| TheSwedishWolf | No | 1.7K |
| SusanWarrenHR | Yes | 1.18K |
| hojs | No | 868.4 |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 743.69 |
| Dreamwire | Yes | 699.67 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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