Analytics
Resolved No on 1 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.7%. Yes opened at 47.5% on 18 Oct 2025. Before it settled, across the 172 daily closes on record from 18 Oct 2025 to 1 May 2026 (24 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 72.5% on 22 Oct 2025 and the lowest 0.3% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 23 points up, to 70% on 20 Oct 2025. $224.95K traded over the market's life.
513 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 18, 11:58 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 172 points, 18 Oct 2025 – 1 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 18 Oct 2025 | 47.5% |
| 1 May 2026 | 0.3% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Outrageous-Pupil | Yes | 3.27K |
| xlefgerx | Yes | 1.25K |
| Warlune | Yes | 812.26 |
This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12.
Resolution source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UfQHy4mVcBo
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/spacex-starship-flight-test-12
| Awesome-Civilization | Yes | 700 |
| TaitaSmith | Yes | 500 |
| eeeediot | Yes | 483.01 |
| Dim-Longitude | Yes | 457.98 |
| RiskyyLemon | Yes | 388.92 |
| Quiet Kestrel 9C54 | Yes | 327 |
| Royal Meteor 7E09 | Yes | 298.8 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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