Will the South African Reserve Bank make no change to the repo rate at the November meeting?

economyActive

Closes Nov 19, 2026 UTC

Yes

79.5%

20.5%

Yes costs 79.5¢No costs 20.5¢

24h Volume

$21

Total volume

$300

Liquidity

$503

Closes

Nov 19, 2026 UTC

Where it stands

Yes is at 79.5%, up 31 points from 49% when the market opened on 25 Sep 2026.

Across the 32 daily closes on record from 25 Sep 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (5 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 79.5% on 30 Oct 2026 and the lowest 40.5% on 30 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 66%; a month before, 71.5%. Its largest one-day move was 39 points up, to 79.5% on 30 Oct 2026.

No Change is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?”, ahead of 25 bps increase at 17.5%.

$21.47 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $300.32 since listing. The order book holds $502.59, with a 25.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 22 trades, $93.91 bought Yes and $55.27 bought No.

The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 111 shares; the largest No position is TheWindKnowsmyName with 74.

Trading closes on 19 Nov 2026, 20 days from now.

Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:55 PM UTC

Trade

Trade Yes79.5¢

Pays $1 a share if Yes wins$21.47 24h vol

Price historyPrice history from Polymarket's order book

Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 32 points, 25 Sep 2026 – 30 Oct 2026

All outcomes

South African Reserve Bank Decision in November?

1No ChangeThis market$300.32 traded79.5%
225 bps increase$152.91 traded17.5%
3

Largest holders

The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trader	Outcome	Shares
xtxpleasecallme	Yes	111.2
TheWindKnowsmyName	No	74
Prickly-Eyrie	No	71.85

Rules

What settles this market

This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 19, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.