Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by December 31?

Across the 123 daily closes on record from 27 Jun 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (3 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 55.5% on 24 Jul 2026 and the lowest 13.5% on 31 Aug 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 22%; a month before, 33.5%. Its largest one-day move was 31 points down, to 15.5% on 17 Jul 2026.

$60 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $4.73K since listing. The order book holds $22.16K, with a 3.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 190 trades, $465.29 bought Yes and $911.2 bought No.

The largest Yes position is xtxpleasecallme with 224 shares; the largest No position is m33zy with 331. Ten wallets hold 87.5% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.

Trading closes on 1 Jan 2027, 63 days from now.