Analytics
Resolved No on 5 May 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 95.5%. Yes opened at 51.5% on 4 Feb 2026. Before it settled, across the 68 daily closes on record from 4 Feb 2026 to 5 May 2026 (23 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 51.5% on 4 Feb 2026 and the lowest 4.2% on 1 May 2026. Its largest one-day move was 18 points down, to 19% on 9 Mar 2026. $28.52K traded over the market's life.
52 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 6, 5:06 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 68 points, 4 Feb 2026 – 5 May 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 4 Feb 2026 | 51.5% |
| 5 May 2026 | 4.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 11.2K |
| sam52727482916 | Yes | 3.03K |
| Assad1979 | Yes | 1.37K |
This market will resolve according to the change in the target for the cash rate resulting from the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board’s May meeting, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of Australia after its May 5, 2026 meeting, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of Australia calendar: https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/board-meeting-schedules.html This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of Australia's media release for their May 5, 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the target for the cash rate is issued by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/reserve-bank-of-australia-decision-in-may
| Yes |
| 816.65 |
| Amber Summit 53DA | Yes | 581.63 |
| Renjo | Yes | 359.24 |
| Amber Lynx 17E0 | Yes | 348.18 |
| peepeepooppoop | Yes | 283.51 |
| Second-Hand-Presume | Yes | 260 |
| cry.eth2 | Yes | 247.09 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
