Analytics
Yes is at 95%, up 39 points from 56.5% when the market opened on 29 Jan 2026.
The high was 95.5% on 27 Sep 2026 and the low 48.5% on 2 Feb 2026. A week ago Yes was at 95%; a month ago, 94.9%. Its largest one-day move was 33 points down, to 48.5% on 2 Feb 2026.
Mike Simpson (R) is the favourite of the 2 outcomes in “ID-02 House Election Winner”, ahead of Ellie Gilbreath (D) at 3.6%.
$14.25K traded in the last 24 hours. The order book holds $10.5K, with a 1.8% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 81 trades, $4.75K bought Yes and $329.97 bought No.
The largest Yes position is macrosteaks with 540 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 1K.
Trading closes on 4 Nov 2026, 28 days from now.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 7, 8:57 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB · 243 points · 29 Jan 2026 – 7 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 29 Jan 2026 | 56.5% |
| 7 Oct 2026 | 95.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 1.01K |
| macrosteaks | Yes | 540.29 |
| SitsToPee | Yes | 509.36 |
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/id-02-house-election-winner
| Prickly-Eyrie |
| Yes |
| 449.94 |
| Dr.PNL | No | 276.04 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 50 |
| AJSV | No | 49.94 |
| e46m3 | No | 32.75 |
| 16r0ob | No | 29.2 |
| Rain-Prob-01 | No | 22.22 |
Every wallet's public record, and 80,000 ranked by lifetime P&L: Polymarket leaderboard
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