Analytics
“Will the Red Bloc win by 12–15 seats?” is a prediction market on Polymarket with two tradeable outcomes, Yes and No. It belongs to the event “Norway Election: Red vs. Blue Bloc Margin of Victory”. The Yes price is the crowd's implied probability that the question resolves Yes; every trade on the public order book moves it.
The venue reports this market as closed. Its scheduled close is Sep 11, 2025. No resolved outcome is inferred from a closed or suspended state.
Vultax observes this market from Polymarket's public order book and data API and keeps its own record: 21 hourly price points from Aug 22, 2025 to Sep 11, 2025 (Yes between 0.1% and 31.5%); 18 loaded holder wallets, the largest ten holding 99.2% of the loaded shares; 159 recent public fills from 48 wallets. Each figure carries its observation time; nothing here is a return forecast.
Public Polymarket market/event context is available; Vultax source-pack coverage is tracked separately.
This resolved market has no live orderbook depth; the public close quote is shown for context.
Nine stops, one per figure on this page. Each stop says what the number is, why it matters, and what it reads right now for this market.
Each outcome trades as a share that pays $1 if it wins and nothing if it loses. Prices are quoted in cents, and Yes plus No add up to about one dollar.
The 2025 Norwegian parliamentary election will be held on Monday, 8 September 2025, to elect members of the 171-seat Storting (Norway’s parliament). This market will resolve according to the difference in the number of seats controlled in the Storting between the Red Bloc and the Blue Bloc as a result of the next Norwegian parliamentary election (e.g. Red Bloc controls 90, Blue Bloc controls 70, difference = 20). the results of this election are not known by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The blue bloc in Norway refers to the following four parties—Conservative (H), Progress (FrP), Liberal (V), and Christian Democratic (KrF). The red bloc in Norway refers to the following five parties—Labour (Ap), Socialist Left (SV), Red (R), Centre (Sp), and the Green Party (MDG). This market's resolution will be based on the number of seats held by the listed parties regardless of if they end up forming a coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Norway's government (e.g. via https://www.valg.no/en/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-red-bloc-win-by-1215-seats
The Yes price read as a chance. A share at 21.5¢ means the crowd gives Yes about a 21.5% chance right now. It moves with every trade, so it is a live forecast, not a verdict.
Dollar value of shares that changed hands in the last 24 hours. High volume means the price is being tested by real money; low volume means a few trades can move it.
Dollars resting in the order book, waiting to be traded against. Deep liquidity lets a large order fill near the quoted price; thin liquidity means the price jumps when someone trades size.
The gap between the best bid and the best ask. A tight spread makes entry and exit cheap; a wide spread is a cost paid on every round trip.
The wallets holding the most shares on each side, and how much of the loaded sample the largest ten control. Concentration shows whether a market is a crowd or a handful of large positions.
The public fills, newest first: which wallet bought or sold which outcome, at what price, and when. It is the market's own diary, and every wallet on it links to a trader profile.
Hourly closes of the Yes price. The range shows how sure or split the crowd has been; the move shows which way it has been changing its mind.
Trading stops at the close time. The outcome is then settled by the resolution source named in the rules. A closed market is not resolved until the venue reports it, so the two states are shown separately.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 7.94K |
| untaken | Yes | 559.76 |
| Ricds | Yes | 492.74 |
| lava-lava | Yes | 413.54 |
| gopfan2 | Yes | 411 |
| TimeTraveler | Yes | 299.96 |
| TheNoobBeaver | Yes | 253.16 |
| Cloudy-Cinnamon | Yes | 100 |
| JoE | Yes | 89.16 |
| Pollyna | Yes | 40 |