Analytics
Yes is at 67%, up 14 points from 53% when the market opened on 14 Oct 2026.
Across the 14 daily closes on record from 14 Oct 2026 to 30 Oct 2026 (4 days in that span have no close), the highest close was 71% on 28 Oct 2026 and the lowest 31% on 16 Oct 2026. A week before that last close Yes was at 44.5%. Its largest one-day move was 13 points down, to 31% on 16 Oct 2026.
RSP is the favourite of the 5 outcomes in “Kathmandu Mayoral Election Winner”, ahead of UML at 15.5%.
$71 traded in the last 24 hours, out of $3.76K since listing. The order book holds $500.66, with a 12.0% gap between the best bid and the best ask. Across the latest 90 trades, $800.09 bought Yes and $459.5 bought No.
The largest Yes position is musicenthusiast with 509 shares; the largest No position is Indigo Signal 2966 with 249. Ten wallets hold 91.9% of the shares on Polymarket's public holder list.
Trading closes on 1 Jan 2028.
Polymarket prices as of Oct 30, 12:47 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 14 points, 14 Oct 2026 – 30 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 14 Oct 2026 | 53.0% |
| 30 Oct 2026 | 67.0% |
The ten largest positions on Polymarket's public holder list.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| musicenthusiast | Yes | 509.13 |
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 248.55 |
| xtxpleasecallme | Yes | 100.49 |
Local elections in Nepal, including the election for the mayor of Kathmandu Metropolitan City (Kathmandu Mahanagarpalika), are expected to be held in 2027. This market will resolve according to the political party of the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kathmandu as a result of this election. A candidate's party will be determined by the party under which the candidate is registered with the Election Commission, Nepal. A candidate who is only endorsed or backed by a party will not count for that party. A candidate registered without a party affiliation will count as "Independent". If a listed party merges into another party before the election, a candidate registered under the resulting party will count for the listed party; if this would apply to more than one listed party, the candidate will count for the listed party that comes first alphabetically as listed in this market. Temporary, interim, acting, or placeholder mayors will not be considered. For purposes of this market, the listed options represent political parties, or “Independent”, not individual candidates. The candidates may be named in the market options for the convenience of traders once candidacies are finalized. Any such names are for convenience only and will not affect resolution: this market will resolve based solely on the party of the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kathmandu, as defined above. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as their party’s candidate before election day, the name in the market will be updated, and the market will resolve based on the party of the replacement candidate. If a candidate is named under “Independent”, that option will still cover any candidate registered without a party affiliation, whether or not they are named. If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by the Nepali government, including Election Commission, Nepal (https://election.gov.np/).
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/kathmandu-mayoral-election-winner-2027
| SmartBoyBilly | No | 89.9 |
| PMWolf | No | 81 |
| asdasdasdasdasdasdasd | No | 54.25 |
| SubashChandraBose | No | 50 |
| GuyFromTinder | Yes | 48.95 |
| Solar Signal F3B1 | No | 30 |
| LornaPredicts | No | 29 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
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