Analytics
Resolved No on 1 Oct 2026.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 99.5%. Yes opened at 50% on 1 Sep 2026. Before it settled, across the 31 daily closes on record from 1 Sep 2026 to 1 Oct 2026, the highest close was 50.5% on 4 Sep 2026 and the lowest 0.5% on 1 Oct 2026. Its largest one-day move was 22 points down, to 13.5% on 27 Sep 2026. $4.47K traded over the market's life.
11 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of Oct 2, 3:09 PM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 31 points, 1 Sep 2026 – 1 Oct 2026
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 1 Sep 2026 | 50.0% |
| 1 Oct 2026 | 0.5% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Indigo Signal 2966 | No | 737.11 |
| tradetosurvive1 | Yes | 239.82 |
| Fair-Tan | Yes | 151.83 |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to the wind-gust range that contains the maximum wind gust, in km/h, recorded in any routine (METAR) or special (SPECI) observation from Wellington Airport (ICAO: NZWN) between September 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET and September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Wellington, New Zealand is widely recognized as the world's windiest city, and its airport regularly records powerful gusts that make headlines and viral landing videos worldwide. The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range. The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=9&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value. If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
| Yes |
| 61.77 |
| gaaaydoggggg | Yes | 51.6 |
| Emerald Falcon 7AE6 | Yes | 50 |
| dsfd3 | Yes | 15 |
| Dr.PNL | Yes | 13.78 |
| TENETENET | Yes | 10 |
| bjprolo | Yes | 7.97 |
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