Analytics
Resolved No on 8 May 2025.
The last daily price before settlement had No at 89%. Yes opened at 12% on 22 Apr 2025. Before it settled, across the 17 daily closes on record from 22 Apr 2025 to 8 May 2025, the highest close was 19% on 30 Apr 2025 and the lowest 9% on 5 May 2025. Its largest one-day move was 6.5 points down, to 9% on 5 May 2025. $269.68K traded over the market's life.
122 wallets still hold shares. Winners redeem theirs after settlement, so what is left is mostly the losing side.
Polymarket record as of May 10, 12:22 AM UTC
Daily closes of the Yes price, Polymarket CLOB, 17 points, 22 Apr 2025 – 8 May 2025, chart shows 5%–25%
| Observed | Yes price |
|---|---|
| 22 Apr 2025 | 12.0% |
| 8 May 2025 | 11.0% |
Winners have redeemed their shares, so most of what is left is the losing side.
| Trader | Outcome | Shares |
|---|---|---|
| Bip-Bop | Yes | 6.39K |
| GamblerSambler | Yes | 6.25K |
| cookiecane | Yes | 3.04K |
| BlackPope | Yes | 2.63K |
Open a trader’s name to inspect the wallet’s available P&L, positions and recorded trades, with source dates and coverage. A large position alone does not establish a winning track record.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next individual elected as pope is widely and credibly identified as Black. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". If no new pope is elected by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The primary resolution source for this market will be the official announcement from the Catholic Church, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Official listing: polymarket.com/event/will-the-next-pope-be-black
New to prediction markets? How to read a market page
| Hhhhhhhhhhh82 | Yes | 2.35K |
| MichiUP | Yes | 2.24K |
| Haz1123581321 | Yes | 1.21K |
| TheNazareno | Yes | 1K |
| g4ribaldi | Yes | 1K |
| holasoyneto | Yes | 1K |
